Dear all!
In a few weeks time I will launch a small dedicated project called "
Project: Ariane".
It's purpose is to make money on the spot fx markets using an aggressive trading algorithm I have developed and spend the last many months live testing. In this invitation you will find all the information you need on how to participate in the project and should you have any questions after reading it, please feel free to drop me a PM.
Who am I and why should you join?
My username is Katinka in this forum. I have been trading currencies for over a decade and have a while back given some good pointers in the trading section on some high probability market moves. I privately manage funds for a couple of large investors that have very conservative risk tolerances and long term investment horizons. I work in a small financial institution in a small quiet town in Southern Scandinavia where everyone knows everyone. I have a couple of great kids and a nice family. My job provides safety, stability, a good pension plan and a some nice benefits. But... I have always wanted to do more because I know I can. Problem is, people around me don't seem to think that moving outside the box is a very good idea and will just lead to trouble. I often think of them like the village hobbits from the movie Lord of the Rings, lol. My thinking is that when you break outside your box, that's when you live live to the fullest!
If you cherish new ideas, innovation and breaking outside the box, I invite you to join me. Something spectacular could happen. And along the way, we might make some serious money together.
Why inviting others to join?
"Project: Ariane" began as a professional challenge but quickly evolved into a passionate project. Because the project is based on alternative thinking it has not been possible for me to break through the conservative thinking that dwells within the management of my firm and so I decided to launch the project through this great forum instead because I know people in here have their eyes open to original new ideas.
How will the project run and for how long?
I am an old fashioned girl who thinks that less is more and who don't like to over complicate things. That means the project will be managed and run through e-mail correspondance only without the use of fancy websites. The project is initially open for anyone interested but once I reach a limit on my time resources I will shut the doors and the project will continue with the base of investors that have joined from that point in time.
Because of the nature of the trading strategy and the position size management we will be using, there will come a time down the road when we have to stop and revise the project. That time will occur when the project's trading equity reaches a sizeable amount and where the execution of the trade becomes impossible in one batch and where prices have to be quoted from several banks. Whether we reach that point in time 2, 3 or 5 years down the road is impossible to predict. But when we get there, we will take stock and decide on how to proceed.
Trading strategy and performance
The trading algorithm that I have developed only trades the 3 major markets: EUR/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/USD. On average it trades 6-8 times each month in total and has had a win ratio in 2010 of 81.40%. It's overall expectancy is at 26.36 right now which means that for every 1$ we trade now, we can expect to make back $26.36 based on its current performance. It's RR ratio is 1:1 which means it's average loss is almost equal to it's average gain. In turn that means this algorithm makes its profits on the high win ratio and from the accumulation of profitable trades. The trading signals are only valid within a 24 hour window and if executed will typically be settled (closed) within a couple of hours in the most liquid trading sessions. This will all be done through stop orders and no market orders or manual interference from myself is needed. Maximum number of losing trades in a row has in 2010 been 2 and the maximum number of winning trades has in 2010 been 11.
The linear regression equation for the performance so far in 2010 is 6.99x+65.2. If we presume the algorithm produces 7 trades a month and does so for the entire year, we could after 1 year end at index value 652.36 from a starting index of 100.00 or realise +552.36% accumulated ROI based on the position size management described below. We can end up better or worse of course.
Position size management
The algorithm will be set to risk 5% of the account equity on each trading signal. Nothing more, nothing less. If stopped the loss will be - 5%. If closed in a profit, the gain will be + 5%. This is an aggressive position size management but with a 80%+ chance of ending with a win the probability of a net gain after a month is statistically significant. Still, despite the great performance the usage of this sort of position size can only be classified as very high risk trading and only risk capital should be used. Please do not participate in this project using capital you cannot afford to lose. Statistically, we should expect a drawdown of at least 2 trades which is 10% unaccumulated or perhaps even 15% in the event we see 3 losses in a row and you have to be prepared to accept this. On the other hand, we are likely to see the algorithm head into space with winning streaks of 5-10 trades at a time or more netting 25%-50% unaccumulated. After a few winning streaks, the losing trades will become relatively insignificant from a mathematically point of view. This position size strategy will remain firm until the project has run its course and until the broker is unable to execute the trades flawlessly. We should be in space by them...
Privacy
As mentioned above, I live a normal life in the normal world and in order to protect that I reserve the right for utmost privacy. In return, I will respect yours. I am not interested in sharing personal details or giving away private information. The project is what it is and the ground rules outlined in this invitation will not be broken. I have consulted with an experienced online investor who has adviced me in how to setup and run this project. You know who you are and I just want to thank you for your time and efforts.
Profit-sharing agreement
If you decide to join "Project: Ariane" I will take a 15% monthly cut off the monthly profits, but only on profits based on higher monthly watermarks. So far in 2010, each month has ended with a higher equity than the previous month, but should it happen a month ends lower than the previous, no profit-sharing commission will be deducted and the commission will not come into effect until the loss has been regained. The 15% I charge is 10% lower than the usual 25% I take from managing larger equity accounts, but size and risk is different obviously and I need to have my time and efforts covered. Still you walk away with 85% of the accumulated profits from doing nothing but putting money at risk which to me sounds like an acceptable deal.
Micro-management rules
Here are the basic rules for project participation. When you join, you are in for at least one full month. No exceptions. Once trading equity is accumulated and trading positions is calculated, the algorithm runs for a full month. After each month I will announce the accumulated result for the previous month (plus I will post a trading statement in this forum. Later on, read-only access to the trading account will be granted) and you can decide to withdraw your funds, add to your investment or simply do nothing. You do this by sending me an e-mail stating your ID and requested action. If I don't hear from you, your balance will roll over into the following month and I save a lot of administration time. I will keep an offline database with your account ID, your C-Gold account number, your USD balance and your e-mail. Backups will be taken each month. All payments will be done through C-Gold.com as they provide the safety and privacy needed for all parties involved.
How to join?
You can join "Project: Ariane" by sending me an e-mail to katinka AT safe-mail.net. Simply include your C-Gold account number, your desired e-mail address (and preferable also a backup e-mail) plus an indication of your initial investment. The minimum investment amount for the first month will be set at $25 worth of gold. This will be changed for the second month but will give you a chance to dip your toes in the water so to speak and will allow me to test how the management works and how much it requires. The maximum investment for the first month will be set at $100. If you send more or less, I will return it to your account by default. Once I get your e-mail, I will add you to the database and return you with an account ID number and the C-Gold account number for the project. When you send your initial investment, remember to add your account ID in the memo field.
First trading month will run from August 8th to August 31st 2010 and last deadline to get registered and signed up will be August 6th 2010.
I am very excited to see where this baby will go.
Hope to see just a few of you on board this journey
Katinka
Open Invitation to Project Ariane
