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Seven EU banks fail stress tests
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grateful Offline
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Seven EU banks fail stress tests
A total of 91 banks from across Europe were tested

Seven of the 91 European banks that underwent stress tests have failed the healthchecks, the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) has said.

They include five Spanish banks - Diada, Espiga, Banca Civica, Unnim and Cajasur. The other two were Germany's Hypo Real Estate and Greece's ATEbank.

The tests assessed banks' ability to survive future economic shocks.

The seven banks would need a total of 3.5bn euros (£3bn) of new capital to meet the standards required, CEBS said.

"[The failed banks] will have to agree with their respective supervisors a plan over a given time period which will explain how this weakness will be resolved," CEBS chairman Giovanni Carosio said.

BBC business editor Robert Peston said that on the face of it, the results appeared to be "good news", but questioned how severe the tests were.

The weekend will be an anxious time for banks, as they wait to learn whether it will become easier or harder for them to borrow, when markets open on Monday, he added.

Some analysts are already arguing that the tests were not strict enough.

"It's very unclear whether banks' creditors will be reassured or unsettled by the stress test results” - Robert Peston BBC business editor

"What seems to have occurred is a compromise amongst European banking regulators, with many questioning if the bar had been set way too low in testing the European banking sector," said Mark O'Sullivan of foreign exchange firm Currencies Direct.

"It seems the tests may have raised more questions than they have answered and in the coming weeks, it will be the interbank lending markets that will have the real answer as to whether real confidence has returned to the European banks."

But Vitor Constancio from the European Central Bank said the tests were very extensive.

Reassurance
The stress tests were conducted on a bank-by-bank basis, in a move designed to reassure investors over the health of Europe's financial sectors.

The most severe test looked at an adverse scenario, assuming a "double-dip" recession over the next two years, as well as a sovereign debt shock - some kind of financial crisis for European governments such as Greece.

Vitor Constancio: "These stress tests are the more extensive and the more severe that have been conducted in developed countries on such a scale"

The seven banks failed because in this scenario, it was deemed that their "tier one" capital ratios - the strictest measure of capital - would fall below 6%, the threshold set for the test.

In its report revealing the aggregate outcome of the tests, CEBS said that the 6% threshold was used as a "benchmark solely for the purpose of this stress test exercise".

"This threshold should by no means be interpreted as a regulatory minimum... nor as a capital target reflecting the risk profile of the institutions."

Banks that are supervised in the EU need to have a regulatory minimum of 4% tier one capital.

CEBS added that failing to meet the 6% threshold did not mean a bank was insolvent.

'Preparedness and resilience'
The UK's four major banks - RBS, Lloyds, HSBC and Barclays - were among the banks tested and all passed the tests, which were carried out by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) on behalf of the EU.

"Seven banks failing the stress test was fewer than many had expected. Some thought the figure would be closer to 10 or 12”
- Gavin Hewitt BBC Europe editor

* How stressful was it?
"As expected, the outcomes of the stresses demonstrate the preparedness and resilience of the UK banks under unlikely adverse economic scenarios," the FSA said.

"This resilience is a result of the considerable work that has been undertaken to strengthen UK banks in recent years."

The British Bankers' Association said: "UK banks have already put in the work to rebuild their businesses and put more money aside against future financial problems.

"It is no surprise to find they have exceeded the standards set out by CEBS."

'Sound Spanish system'
The five Spanish banks that failed, out of 27 tested, were regional savings banks, which racked up heavy losses following the collapse of the Spanish property market.

Cajasur was bailed out by the Bank of Spain in May.

Following publication of the stress test results, the central bank said in a statement: "The exercise confirms that the Spanish banking system is sound, and in turn substantiates the savings bank restructuring and recapitalisation process pursued over the past twelve months by the Bank of Spain."

Meanwhile, 13 out of 14 German banks passed the tests.

"The German banking system has shown itself to be robust and proved its resilience even under very pessimistic assumptions," financial watchdog Bafin and central bank, the Bundesbank, said in a statement.

It added that the only German bank that failed, Hypo Real Estate, "is currently undergoing a far-reaching restructuring process".

ATEbank was the only one of the six Greek banks that participated in the tests to fail.

Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said the results were positive and showed that "the Greek banking system can cope even in the extreme conditions of a stress test".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10732597

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07-23-2010 11:33 PM
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TeamPlayer Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Seven EU banks fail stress tests
Some say the test was nowhere near severe enough.

No surprise some Spanish banks failed, Spain is in a real economic crisis at the moment.

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07-24-2010 08:52 AM
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abishop Offline
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RE: Seven EU banks fail stress tests
More crisis to follow in Europe over the next couple of years I believe. There is so much that has not even been touched upon or only very slightly in mainstream media, such as Credit Card defaults, Retail excessive leveraging, the pushing of one global currency and much more.

Much of the information as to how stress tests are conducted are just not released. For instance, BOV in Malta (government bank) have, I believe, circa €350m invested in Enemalta (sole government energy company) which is technically bankrupt (extremelly inefficient company) but most unlikely that will not come out in the results of Malta stress tests. Undoubtably this will be the case with almost all countries banks that have been included.

Alan

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07-26-2010 08:12 AM
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abishop Offline
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RE: Seven EU banks fail stress tests
(07-26-2010 08:12 AM)abishop Wrote:  More crisis to follow in Europe over the next couple of years I believe...

Much of the information as to how stress tests are conducted are just not released. For instance, BOV in Malta (government bank) have, I believe, circa €350m invested in Enemalta (sole government energy company) which is technically bankrupt (extremelly inefficient company) but most unlikely that will not come out in the results of Malta stress tests. Undoubtably this will be the case with almost all countries banks that have been included.

Alan

If Fridays publication of the European bank stress tests were a Shakespearian play they would have been “Much Ado About Nothing” as they came out with a mere 7 banks out of the 91 banks tested failing, suggesting that the criteria were less than thorough.

The tests were limited to banks trading book losses, while assuming a four notch downgrade to securitised holdings, and a 20% drop in stock markets across Europe over the next two years.

The evaluations took into account potential losses only on government bonds the banks physically trade, rather than those they intend holding to maturity, according to the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). That means the tests are set to ignore the majority of banks’ holdings of sovereign debt as they moved the riskier elements of the debt out of their trading books so that it was left out of the scope of the tests.

Time will tell if this bit of creative accounting or sleight of hand is able to reassure the markets; however what it may do is split the European banking system into a two tier one with the strong banks in one tier, and the weaker ones left to wither on the vine, locked out of the funding markets and dependent on the ECB.

This may well put a near term cap on recent euro gains and see the single currency start to slide back, however if it is able to get above its recent highs around 1.3020 it could well overspill towards 1.3125.

The pound could well continue to be well supported despite the 0.1% fall in July’s monthly Hometrack figures for July. Friday’s UK preliminary Q2 GDP figures should remain the dominant factor after surprising to the upside and embarrassing the economist forecasts by coming in at a whopping 1.1% against an expectation of 0.6%, its highest level since Q1 2006.

This unexpected boost to growth makes the likelihood of further quantitative easing unlikely in the short-term and also adds weight to Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Sentance’s argument that rates should start to rise sooner rather than later.

In the US June new home sales housing data out today could well continue in the same vein as previous data, however analysts appear to be slightly more optimistic, since the May figure shocked the market with a 32% fall, with analysts predicting a 5% rise for June.

EURUSD – The single currency has continued to struggle to make gains beyond 1.3000, slipping back on the back of the publication of the stress test results
It hasn’t however been able to break back below the 1.2840/50 area for the moment, but in the event it does it should find support at last week’s lows around 1.2730/40. While above 1.2840/50 the risk of a move towards the 38.2% retracement level of 1.3125 remains a possibility.

GBPUSD – Friday’s surprisingly good GDP numbers boosted the pound at the end of last week sending it through 1.5335, after a tricky couple of days last week and keep alive the possibility of a test towards the April highs around 1.5520, and even 1.5610 which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.6460/1.4230 down move.
Trend line support levels, around the 1.5180/90 area, from the June lows at 1.4350 needs to hold to maintain the momentum of the recent gains and have so far. A break below 1.5180/90 potentially opens up 1.4980,

EURGBP – the euro finally came unstuck on Friday against a resurgent pound as the support at 0.8400/10 gave way to a sharp move lower towards the 0.8320/30 level.
The 0.8400/10 again becomes a key resistance level again to further euro gains and would expect to see further declines through 0.8320/30 back towards 0.8240, while 0.8410 caps.

USDJPY – no change in sentiment here while below the 88.00/10 level. A re-test of 86.25 remains the preferred option. However the increase in risk appetite since Friday’s stress test results has seen the yen weaken, lessening the risk of a test towards last year’s yen lows at 84.80, via last week’s lows at 86.25. A break above 88.00/10 would re-target the 89.20/30 level while a break of 84.80 would look to target the 1995 lows below 80.00.

Source: ADVFN

In line with my previous post.

Alan

Markets Mastered - LSTrader - Rich Dad Poor Dad - Perfect Business Finder
07-26-2010 09:23 AM
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grateful Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Seven EU banks fail stress tests
Thanks for shedding more light on the implications (or interpretation) of these stress tests, Alan.

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07-28-2010 01:29 AM
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abishop Offline
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RE: Seven EU banks fail stress tests
Most welcome Grateful,

I think it is somewhat of a sham that people are being misguided, even deluded, by such information that is not being given out, for we can only make healthy decisions based on the information we known or believe to know. Unfortunately mainstream media still ramps the way.

As I am sure many will have seen yesterday, tstocks soared, but what many will not realise that this was "chasing the market" which is an investors sin. Again, unfortunately, many people will get caught out severely when there is a sell off, especially for persons using high or excessive leaverage without guaranteed stops and moveable profit stops.

Alan

Markets Mastered - LSTrader - Rich Dad Poor Dad - Perfect Business Finder
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2010 06:05 AM by abishop.)
07-28-2010 06:03 AM
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grateful Offline
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RE: Seven EU banks fail stress tests
Quote:Unfortunately mainstream media still ramps the way.
Now I'm reading more often that the govts (in particular the US), has turned to blaming the media for inadequate research and reporting of facts, when in fact, (whatever) the event has been initially reported by govt sources.

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08-03-2010 01:41 AM
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